How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Dakota Motley
Business Manager

Winter sign
Art by Dakota Motley

Groundhog Day has been around since 1887, while the current groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, has allegedly been doing his predictions since the beginning.

However it’s not likely to be the same groundhog since that’s 15 times longer than a groundhog’s lifespan.

Phil has between a 35% and 41% accuracy rate. He has predicted a longer winter 107 times while only having 37.45 of them being correct. The Pennsylvania residents believe Phil is correct all the time, the “Inner Circle” saying he has a 100% accuracy rate, even with all the evidence against it.

Spring sign
Art by Dakota Motley

This groundhog isn’t the only animal that claims to predict the future weather. There are other groundhogs around the country like, Buckeye Chuck in Marion, OH; Staten Island Chuck in Staten Island, NYC; Stormy Marmot in Aurora, CO; and General Beauregard Lee in Jackson, GA.

Each one claims to be correct about whether or not there will be six more weeks of winter. All but Buckeye Chuck has made correct predictions more times than Phil has, ranging from 60% to 82% success rates. Chuck was only correct twice.
The question is should we continue to trust Phil with our Spring predictions or change up the ways.


Dakota Motley- Business Manager

This will be Dakota Motley’s first year on ECHO staff. They also made several contributions while taking journalism class their junior year.

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